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While nearly all U.S. states currently face budget shortfalls,
California's deficit is more than one-third of its general fund.
That's largely due to its dependence on income taxes, which
slide during a recession. And the state can't easily borrow due
to the government bond-market freeze. Moody's even
warned it may downgrade the state's rating.
There's no easy fix to the problem, as any solution likely
requires cutting benefits and social services—tough political
choices for Schwarzenegger. But the state does have an abundant
natural resource it may be able to draw on for help.
Marijuana is California's largest cash crop. It's valued at
$14 billion annually, or nearly twice the value of the state's
grape and vegetable crops combined, according to government
statistics. Indeed, a recent report pegged marijuana as
two-thirds of the economy of Mendocino County, a ganja hotbed
north of San Francisco. That's not surprising—it
costs $400 to grow a pound of pot that can sell for $6,000 on
the street.
But the state doesn't receive any revenue from its cash cow.
Instead, it spends billions of dollars enforcing laws pegged at
shutting down the industry and inhibiting marijuana's adherents.
Of course, there's a reason for that. Marijuana's social costs
may include addiction and rehabilitation treatment and lost
productivity. Yet these are minute compared with the
extensive social costs of alcohol or tobacco.
Of course, just legalizing pot wouldn't automatically harvest
revenues for the state. An organized system of regulating sales
and collecting taxes would need implementing. And it's possible
that general drug use could rise, though the debate that pot is
a gateway drug to harder substances is inconclusive.
There's also the question of whether or not taxing marijuana
would simply create a black market that would again skimp the
state on taxes. The best corollaries here are cigarettes and
alcohol. Rises in "sin taxes" on them have decreased
consumption—a positive—but don't seem to have destabilized
the legal market. Decriminalization could lead to some job
losses in law enforcement, though the countervailing argument
would see these forces put to work stopping harder crime.
So what are the numbers? A national legalization effort would
save nearly $13 billion annually in enforcement costs and bring
in $7 billion in yearly tax revenues, according
to a study by Harvard University economist Jeffrey Miron.
Since California represents 13 percent of the U.S. economy,
those numbers suggest the state could save $1.7 billion in
enforcement costs and nab up to $1 billion in revenues. That
doesn't include any indirect revenues as, for example, rural
farming communities grow or marijuana tourism, which has been
lucrative for the Netherlands, takes off.
Put it all together, and California could potentially wipe
some $3 billion off its budget deficit by letting its people
puff and pay. That still leaves it with a gaping $39 billion
hole to fill, so the state's problems go far beyond what a new
cash crop can fix. But anything to help soothe the state's
chronic fiscal pain—even if unpalatable to some—is worth
considering.
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